Population Trends
2025 Edition
Printable Version: SOC 3104A_2025
This publication summarizes current demographic trends in Iowa between 2015 and 2025. It is modeled after the United States Department of Agriculture’s Rural America at a Glance. Indicators are taken from federal data sources at the county-level. Metropolitan central areas include counties with an urban city over 50,000 people. Metropolitan outlying areas include the suburban counties of metro cities that are linked by commuting patterns. Micropolitan counties have an urban city of at least 10,000 people. Rural counties, technically called “non-core”, have no urban city of 10,000 or more. Adjacent states include Illinois, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Wisconsin.
Population
Rural Iowa is shrinking slowly. Rural Iowa contains 22.9% of the state’s population, and micropolitans are home to 14.7% of our residents. Both areas have continued to lose people since 2015, despite slower losses during COVID. Metros growing at a fast pace. Outlying metro counties (i.e. exurbs) hold 8.9% of people and have grown over the past decade, especially during the pandemic. Iowa’s central metros contain the majority of the state’s population at 53.6%. The urban core has boomed over the past 10 years, surpassing the U.S. growth rate.
The Des Moines metro saw fast growth, with Dallas County booming by 47%, followed by Warren (Indianola) and Polk counties at 18.2% and 10.5%, and Madison County (Winterset) at 9.8%. Johnson County (Iowa City) grew by 10.3%. Other sizable population gains occurred in the Cedar Rapids metro, Dickinson County in the Iowa Great Lakes region, and the northwest corner of the state in Lyon and Sioux counties.
By contrast, sharp declines occurred in southeast Iowa, including the counties of Jefferson (Fairfield) at 14.6%, Louisa (Wapello/Columbus Jct.) at 7.7%, and Lee (Ft. Madison/Keokuk) at 7.5%. In general, the southern tier of counties saw population losses, with the exceptions of Wayne County (Corydon) that grew by 6% and Davis County (Bloomfield) that grew by 5.2%.
Natural Change
Rural Iowa is shrinking fast as deaths far exceed births. Rural Iowa lost 1.7 people per 1,000 residents in 2025, as deaths exceeded births. Natural change was stable between 2015-2019, hovering around replacement rates of zero. In 2021, COVID-19 sharply increased deaths, causing natural losses of 3 deaths per 1,000. As the pandemic receded, rural natural change rates improved. However, birth rates began to fall in 2024 and 2025, worsening natural losses. Metro Iowa has slow growing natural change, rising from 2.4 more birth than deaths in 2021 up to 2.9 by 2025. Metro Iowa is the only area where births exceed deaths.
Counties that are shrinking the fastest due to natural loss are the northwestern counties of Cherokee, Calhoun (Rockwell City), and Dickinson (Spirit Lake); and the southwestern counties of Montgomery (Red Oak), Cass (Atlantic), and Page (Clarinda). Natural loss is caused by counties having fewer women of child-bearing age and more older adults and seniors.
By contrast, counties where births far exceeded deaths include Davis County (Bloomfield) in the southeast, Sioux (Orange City) and Buena Vista (Storm Lake) counties in the northwest, and the metro counties of Dallas (Des Moines) and Johnson (Iowa City). Natural gains are driven by more child-bearing age adults, specific religious cultures, and immigrant families.
Domestic Migration
Fewer people are leaving rural Iowa, while micropolitan out-migration has persisted. Prior to and shortly after the COVID-19 pandemic, rural Iowa saw 4 to 5 more people leaving small towns than moving in per 1,000 population. However, by 2025 the out-migration rate slowed to just 2 people leaving per 1,000—effectively cutting out-migration in half. Unfortunately, micropolitan Iowa has seen outmigration worsen. People leave because rural places lack higher education institutions, professional job opportunities, entertainment and social amenities, and for personal choices.
In metros, people moving to the suburbs, not the cities. Central metros have had no net in-migration since 2016, meaning there are equal numbers of people both moving into and out of these urban counties. By contrast, people are moving into outlying or suburban metro counties, with 4.7 more people (per 1,000) moving in than out in 2025 (per 1,000).
In general, more people are leaving northern Iowa to other locations in the state or across the nation. Counties where more people leave than move in include Buena Vista (Storm Lake) at a 19.3 loss per 1,000, Clay (Spencer) at a 18 person loss, Pocahantas at a 10.9 loss, and Franklin (Hampton) at a 10.4 loss. There are also pockets of high out-migration in southeastern Iowa that includes the counties of Jefferson (Fairfield) at 16.7, Louisa (Wapello/Columbus Jct.) at 13, and Wapello (Ottumwa) at 10.8 people leaving that moving in. Many of these counties have meatpacking facilities.
On the other hand, areas where more people move in that left include the Des Moines metro, the Cedar Rapids metro, and areas of southwest Iowa. In particular, Wayne County (Corydon) saw 12.5 more people move into the county that moved out in 2025—the third highest in-migration rate in Iowa. People are attracted to metros due to the wide array of growing job opportunities, higher wages, and sociocultural amenities.
International Migration
Across Iowa, immigration plummeted in 2025 after reaching historic highs. International migration reached record numbers following the COVID-19 pandemic. In central metros, 5.5 more immigrants moved in than left per 1,000 in 2023, which fell to only 2.5 per 1,000 by 2025. In micropolitan Iowa, immigration fell from 3.4 down to 1.4 over the same period; and in rural Iowa it fell from 2.8 down to 1 per 1,000 population. The reduction was caused by immigration enforcement actions in President Trump’s second term in 2025.
Locations most affected by sharp reductions in immigration are home to the state’s largest agricultural production and processing facilities. Counties with the steepest declines in immigration rates (per 1,000) include Wright (Clarion) at 11.7, Hamilton (Webster City) at 9.3, Allamakee (Waukon) at 8.1, Crawford (Denison) at 6.3, Sioux (Orange City) and Franklin (Hampton) both at 5.7, and Marshall (Marshalltown) and Buena Vista (Storm Lake) at around 4.5 per 1,000 people.
Age Structure
Rural Iowa is losing youth and working-age adults. Rural Iowa shrank by 2.2% over the past 10 years, with the majority of losses being people age 45-64 (4.9% loss), and smaller losses among school and college-age people under 25 years of age (1.5% loss). This was offset by a gain in seniors over 65 years (3.7% gain), especially those age 65-74. Micropolitan Iowa shows a similar trend, but shrank more slowly at 1.4% over the decade. Metro Iowa is gaining youth and young workers. Central metros grew by 7.8%, fueled by gains in seniors (5.4%), working adults age 25-44 (2.2%), and younger populations (0.7%).
In short, the entire state of Iowa is aging, but in different ways: non-metro Iowa is aging and shrinking, while metro Iowa is aging and growing. For rural Iowa, this means fewer children in public schools which may lead to consolidation; and a fast shrinking pool of working-age adults that will lead to labor shortages that may hinder business growth and expansion.
From the table below, we see that in 2025 central metros had larger shares of school age and younger working-age people than in other parts of Iowa. On the other hand, non-metro Iowa had much larger shares of senior citizens.
Population by Age in 2025
|
|
Age |
Age |
Age |
Age |
|
Metro Central |
33.8% |
26.7% |
22.1% |
17.4% |
|
Metro Outlying |
30.7% |
23.3% |
24.4% |
21.5% |
|
Micropolitan |
30.7% |
23.2% |
23.5% |
22.6% |
|
Rural |
30.8% |
21.9% |
23.1% |
24.1% |
|
Adjacent States |
30.7% |
26.3% |
23.7% |
19.3% |
|
U.S. |
30.4% |
26.9% |
23.8% |
18.9% |
Except for senior citizens, all of Iowa’s population gains are from people of color (PoC). In rural Iowa, the working-age population is both shrinking and diversifying at the same time. Rural whites age 25-64 fell by 6.3%, but this was offset by a 1.9% gain in rural people of color (non-white race or Hispanic) of the same age. Added together, rural Iowa’s working-age population shrank by 4.5%, instead of 6.3% without PoC. The same trend is happening among rural Iowa’s child and school age population under age 25. White youth fell by 2.8%, while students of color grew by 1.3%, resulting in an overall loss of 1.5%.
Even in the state’s largest cities we see rapid diversification. In central metros, all gains in school age residents are from persons of color. For the working age population, whites age 25-64 fell by 2.6%, but workers of color grew by a rapid 4.3%, helping growth the workforce by 1.7% overall. In other words, Iowa’s future students and workforce will be much more diverse.
Race and Ethnicity
Minority growth avoided sizable population losses in non-metro Iowa. In rural and micropolitan Iowa, populations would have shrunk by 5.9% to 6.4% if not for gains in minorities. In micropolitans, minority gains offset 78% of white losses, slowing overall population loss to only 1.4% (instead of a 6.4% loss). For rural Iowa, minorities offset 62% of white population losses, limiting shrinkage to only a 2.2% decline over the decade (versus a 5.9% loss). In short, non-metro Iowa is both shrinking and diversifying at the same time, with minorities the only growing segment of the rural population.
By contrast, central metro populations boomed due to people of color. Of the 7.8% growth rate since 2015, 8.2% was from persons of color, while the white population shrank by 0.5%. Central metros saw large gains across all race groups, but in the rest of the state, it was mostly Hispanic and those of two or more races.
From the table and map below, central metros and micropolitans are the most diverse parts of the state, while outlying metros and rural Iowa are still overwhelming white, despite rapid gains in people of color.
Population by Race and Ethnicity in 2025
|
|
american |
american |
american |
american |
american |
|
Metro Central |
75.8% |
7.2% |
4.6% |
3.5% |
8.9% |
|
Metro Outlying |
91.7% |
1.2% |
0.9% |
2.3% |
3.8% |
|
Micropolitan |
81.9% |
2.9% |
2.6% |
2.7% |
9.9% |
|
Rural |
88.5% |
1.1% |
1.5% |
2.1% |
6.9% |
|
Adjacent States |
68.5% |
10.1% |
5.6% |
3.3% |
12.4% |
|
U.S. |
56.1% |
12.3% |
7.5% |
3.6% |
20.5% |
The most diverse counties tend to be located in non-metro Iowa. For example, nearly half of residents in Buena Vista (Storm Lake) county are people of color, the highest in the state; as are over one-third of residents in Crawford (Denison), Marshall (Marshalltown), and Woodbury (Sioux City) counties. About 25 percent of residents identify as minority in Muscatine, Wapello (Ottumwa) and Wright (Clarion) counties, as well as the metro counties of Polk (Des Moines) and Johnson (Iowa City). Diversity in Iowa is closely tied to the agricultural production and processing industries.
Implications
Rural Iowa lost population in 2025 because of out-migration (people leaving), natural decline (more deaths than births), and curtailed immigration (due to federal enforcement). Out-migration from rural Iowa has slowed over the past 10 years, suggesting improvement in economic and social conditions. Falling birth rates and an aging population has resulted in natural losses, a situation that has not occurred for nearly 30 years. Rural Iowa is no longer able to replenish its population from within, meaning it has to rely on people moving into small towns. For the past decade, immigration was the only source of population growth in rural Iowa. However, international migration into rural Iowa was cut by 60% in 2025, due to federal immigration enforcement actions. This caused population losses in Iowa to triple last year, worsening from a loss of only 0.095% in 2024 to a sizable loss of 0.275% in 2025.
Loss of immigrants, mainly non-whites, will cut off the only population pipeline in rural Iowa. Minorities are the only growing source of school-age children and young adults under age 25; and the only growing source of workers age 25-64.
In other words, a triad of immigration restrictions, out-migration, and low birth rates will worsen rural population losses, which will harm rural Iowa economies and communities in the latter half of the 2020s. Fewer people under age 65 means a scarcity of workers resulting in severe labor shortages. This will limit business expansion and attraction, increase labor costs that may drive local inflation, and reduce the competitiveness of rural businesses. Fewer students means school consolidation, longer busing times, and loss of community pride. Fewer patients means loss of health clinics and hospital closures; and fewer young adults will only worsen the lack of labor and delivery units across rural Iowa. Fewer customers means closure of Main Street business and other essential services that promote rural livability and quality of life, such as child care, senior services, restaurants, and builders to maintain the housing stock.
The policy challenges in the 2020s is how to balance immigration control with rural workforce needs, especially in agriculture and food manufacturing. How to improve rural livability to slow out-migration and retain young adults, with a limited private sector in small towns and reduced federal grant support. How to encourage rural family formation with an uncertain rural economy (e.g. job insecurity, lower wages, limited benefits), fewer child care options, and consolidated and underfunded rural schools.
***
Analysis and writing by:
Dr. David Peters, Professor and Extension State Specialist of Agricultural and Rural Policy
Email: dpeters@iastate.edu | Tel. 515-294-6303
For more information visit https://smalltowns.soc.iastate.edu/IowaGlance
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